A Different Form of Post Season Analysis

Among other things that I haven't yet gotten around to writing (preoccupation with other things) are after-the-season analysis of the play of various Pittsburgh Pirates.

When I actually bother to do this, I want to frame my analysis in a slightly different way.

1. Statistics. The "old-school" statistics and some modern sabermetric statistics will be posted to view actual performance in 2007 (and in some cases, prior seasons, for track record purposes).

2. The question that I want to answer: What role would a player at this position, with this statistical line, have on a team that wins 90 games? (I realize that there were two NL playoff teams that didn't win 90 games this season; still, I want to examine what role such a player would have on one of the teams that wins 90 games.) There are two purposes for asking such a question. First, one can realize the harsh (but of course known) truth that most Bucco players wouldn't have a role to play on a team that wins 90 games. Secondarily, however, one can see the value of such a player to a team that wants to win 90 games. And if the Buccos are considering trading some of their more established talent, seeing the value of a great #6 or #7 hitter, a specialist reliever, or a solid mid-to-back-of-the-rotation pitcher to a 90-game winning team helps you to "price" your own player in such a way that you know his worth to a club that earns 90 victories and thus have a concept of the return that must be expected for such a player.

3. Conjecture. Conjecture is what a blog is all about, right? In any case, conjecture might look at past performance or projected future performance. Will a player's value decrease or increase? How will such an increase or decrease in a player's value determine if you should "sell high" or "hold" the player? And, of course, given the title of this section, you can expect to read about "intangibles" or even "favorite player" affectations because, hey, that's part of what conjecture is.

For example, let's take this player (not a Pirate, as the statistical line will soon make obvious):

1. G:34 IP:241.0 H:238 ER:94 HR:20 BB:37 SO:209 W:19 L:7
WHIP: 1.14 BAA: .259 OBP: .292 SLG: .392 OPS: .682
ERA: 3.21 K/BB: 5.65 K/9: 7.81 FIP: 3.27 VORP: 65.2 PRC: 128


2. He was an ace for a team that won 96 games and won their division. A preseason fantasy outlook had him primed for a "career year," and lo and behold, take a gander at the above statistics. He is the number 1 starter for a team that wins 90 games unless that team is blessed with another pitcher who possesses the same superb strikeout, walk, and WHIP rates, and then that team has two legitimate number 1 pitchers.

3. He's definitely enjoyed a "career" year this season, but he's still only 26 and primed for several more "career" years. For pitching like this, you gladly pay $8,750,000 a year, his salary in 2007. And since this is the conjecture section, his stuff is beheld with the eyes to be dynamite, and he's pure pleasure to watch on the mound.

Oh, the player in question is 26-year-old CC Sabathia, who lost Game 1 to the the Boston Red Sox tonight and whose stuff--even in the midst of the loss--still made me drool. I figured I'd give Bucco fans a chance to see the analysis and outlook for a legitimate big-time, big league star.

I've been tossing around what these pieces will look like in my head, and I have an idea: the non-2007 version of Jason Bay can start for a team that wins 90 games, a few other position players have various different roles to play on 90 game winning teams (not the roles for which they're slated on the Pirates) and perhaps 3 or 4 pitchers could find a place on a team that wins 90 games.

But it's all about proper value, and the question I'm most curious about is the one that will sting the most, but is most necessary to examine, and that's the question so absurd that non-Bucco fans reading this blog are probably working hard to refrain from too much uproarious laughter: What role would this ballplayer, based on performance alone, have on a major league baseball team that wins 90 games?

It should be interesting to consider, that's all.