It's a Long Way From Minor League Domination to Success in the Show

For as fun and exciting as it is to scan many minor league box scores on a nightly basis. For as thrilling as it is to have multiple prospects (rather than just one) at multiple levels to follow. As exciting as it is to ponder the possibility that my porous, pathetic Pirates might actually have pitching options next season due to this sudden influx of a few prospects in the higher levels of the minor leagues. And even as enticing as the flashier prospects--Jose Tabata, the recently signed Pedro Alvarez--are, well, I'd like to offer numbers. (Caveat: Just numbers for the moment. I'll add the adjectives to describe "numbers" soon enough, don't fret.)


Player 1
AAA Numbers: 112 IP, 104 K, 23 BB, 1.01 WHIP, 3.70 ERA
AA Numbers: 151 IP, 142 K, 40 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.16 ERA
Career Minor League Numbers: 648 IP, 617 K, 167 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 2.85 ERA
MLB Career Numbers: 581 IP, 497 K, 249 BB, 1.52 WHIP, 4.68 ERA

Player 2
AAA Numbers: 100 IP, 94 K, 27 BB ,0.94 WHIP , 2.34 ERA
AA Numbers: 129 IP, 124 K, 46 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.26 ERA
Career Minor League Numbers: 443.2 IP, 440 K, 140 BB, 1.10 WHIP 2.84 ERA
MLB Career Numbers: 361 IP ,234 K, 166 BB, 1.51 WHIP, 4.75 ERA

Player 3
AA Numbers: 81 IP, 75 K, 26 BB, 1.21 WHIP, 3.20 ERA
Career Minor League Numbers: 211 IP ,170 K, 74 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.11 ERA
MLB Career Numbers: 569 IP, 370 K, 193 BB, 1.41 WHIP, 4.30 ERA


Now let's take a gander at some current prospects in AAA (and even "cherry-pick" one line of AAA for the "best" of AAA while noting the prospects
came from the NYY organization.)

Prospect
AA: 53 IP, 52 K, 18 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 2.55 ERA.
AAA: 70 IP, 58 K, 11 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.58 ERA
Career Minor League Numbers: 331 IP, 269 K, 75 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.91 ERA
MLB Career Numbers: TBD

Another Prospect
AA: 178 IP, 125 K, 29 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.29 ERA
AAA: 41 IP, 35 K, 8 BB, 1.13 WHIP, 3.24 ERA
Career Minor League Numbers: 515 IP, 426 K, 134 BB, 1.34 WHIP, 3.89 ERA
MLB Career Numbers: TBD


So what's the point of "cherry-picking" the first set of statistics? Player 1 has an ERA close to six this year; he had a top 10 strikeout and innings pitched rate in the NL last year. Player 2 has an ERA above six this season; like player 1, he had a top 10 innings pitched rate in the NL last year. Player 3 has an ERA in the mid-three's this year; he's pitched well enough to earn the "accolade" of "ace" of the Pittsburgh Pirates' pitching staff...but he has pitched very, very well.

So, about those adjectives for the above numbers? Look at those minor league numbers for 3 pitchers currently in the big-league Bucco rotation. Take a serious gander at those so sweet, singing minor league statistics of 3 pitchers who began 2008 in the rotation of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those minor league numbers are pristine, and the WHIP, K:BB ratio, etc., portend well for success in the Show.

And, well, fortunately enough, none of these players has had to have arm surgery. None has had his arm fall off, figuratively or literally. And all have, at some point, experienced success in the Show.

Except you know what's happened this year. Except you can look at their career statistics. But don't look at the sweet, singing minor league statistics and tell me minor league statistical success automatically, instantaneously translates to success in the Show.

In fact, take a gander at those minor league numbers. Take a gander at Gorzelanny's recent line at AAA, and you'll note: He's by no means a AAA pitcher.

Ah, but there's a long way from dominating AAA to consistently succeeding in the Show.

And for those who say I'm a bitter, jaded, cynical Bucco fan, I say: Guilty as charged, but at this particular juncture, that truth about myself is impertinent and irrelevant.

Because take a gander at the Buchholz kid in the winning, playoff-bound organization, the one the dearly departed Jason Bay now represents, and note that perhaps my porous, pathetic Pirates encounter this issue far more frequently than do more successful organizations, but, please, people, look at the numbers and realize that many successful minor league players, even ones with statistics that sing and stuff that's sweet, will not manage to replicate that level of success, at least not consistently, at least not right away--at the major league level...and some will never reach the level of "consistent success" at the MLB level.

And have fun, as I do, scanning the minor league box scores--hope is fun, and when you have high-upside prospects, there's a chance for greatness, and that chance is real.

But from those box scores, please refrain from extrapolating what isn't there, never has been there, and will never actually exist there. Examine those 3 minor league lines of current Pittsburgh pitchers even as you scrutinize the minor league box scores. And cease from extrapolating what won't be there until you see it in black-and-white under "MLB Career Statistics," the way you see it under "Minor League Career Statistics." And keep it in mind even as you, like me, eagerly check the minor league box scores, hoping to see something--something that even pristine minor league statistics, as we've seen in our current rotation--that just isn't quite, at least not yet, and perhaps not ever, actually present.


(Caveat Note on this post: Does being a fan of the Pirates since 1987 mean that I am just a bitter, jaded cynic? Is it the years of bad drafting and improper development that have made me this way? Or is just the harsh reality of what is reflected in the plain old black-and-white statistics I scan?)